Posts Tagged ‘forex analysis’

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Forex: Technical analysis VS Fundamental analysis

June 3, 2012

Many traders wonder how to analyze the market – via the chart or via the news and events, many traders think that the news lead the movement of the price… But our opinion(and not only ours) is that the influence of the major events is not as big as you think. Trader’s Sentiment is what moves the price up or down. And you can see the sentiment of the traders at the chart. Most of the time the bad news are coming as a result of the previous downtrend movement and the good news are coming as a result of the previous uptrend movement. Read More

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AUD/NZD Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

May 21, 2012

When you look at the weekly chart of AUD/NZD you can see that since August 2008 till now it perfectly formed uptrend Elliott Wave movement. It also formed Symmetrical Triangle. This can give us the signal that the price more likely will break the resistance levels at 1.3050 and 1.3270 and will target the strong resistance at 1.3720. So we recommend you to open long positions if it breaks the resistance at 1.3050. You decide where to put your stop loss!

Good luck!

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Forex: Money management – what separates winners from loosers

May 15, 2012

Have you asked yourself what strategy do you need to learn in order to become a successful trader? Have you tried to learn a lot of analyzing tools and indicators? Trend, support, resistance, Fibonacci, Gann, MACD, Moving Average, Bolinger bands etc. And in the end of the day you loose your capital… What is the problem? You analysis is over 50% successful however you loose money.

The answer is simple – Money management! In my opinion it is very easy to analyze the market over 50% successful! The hard part is to stay calm, to be patient to control your greed and emotions.

Have you been in a position to know that the market is going up, to think again and again “Why shouldn’t I put more money in this position? I am 100% sure it will go up!”? And then you decide to keep it the normal amount and… the market is going up and you regret your decision with the feeling that you have missed a good profit. And the next time when you are sure it will go up you open a huge position with high leverage(you are 100% sure it will go up) and… this time it goes down… and you loose a lot of money.

So what is the secret? NEVER risk more than 1-2% of your capital!

What is your success rate if you open a position with 100 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss? Generally it is 50/50 which means that in a perfect world if you open 30 positions this month you will have 15 winning and 15 loosing positions and you will pay only the commission to your broker. If you risk 1% of your money you will be able to do it, however if you risk everything you cannot afford to loose on a position more than 2 times in a row.

Now imagine if you develop a little bit in technical analysis and your success is not 50/50 but 60/40, so you have opened 30 positions this month, 18 winning and 12 loosing. Lets say that you are trading with 10000$ – 1 pip= 1$ and leverage 1:1 . You always put your stop loss and take profit levels 100 pips away.

Calculation:

12 loosing positions * 100 pips = 1200 pips on  loss

18 winning positions * 100 pips = 1800 pips on profit

30 opened positions * 3 pips spread = 90 pips commission

So 1800-1200-90= 510 pips on profit = 510$ for 1 month

This is 6120$ profit on yearly basis which is 61.2%. I think  this is  great!

On the other side if you trade on high risk there is a chance to loose your whole capital for 1 hour…

Do you understand now why Money Management is one of the most important things in Forex?

All you need is discipline, self control, and just a little bit knowledge about the Forex market!

I wish I have helped you with this article!

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Good luck!

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USD/INR is going down?

May 14, 2012

USD/INR reached the significant resistance at 54.00 and in our opinion it  more likely will rebound and will target the support at 53.20. So if you decide to open a short position we advice you to put the stop loss 10-15 pips above the resistance at 54.00 and to place your take profit order at least 10-15 pips above the support at 53.20. You should consider  that if the price breaks the resistance at 54.00 it most probably will continue the uptrend movement!

Tip: Always put your stop loss! Even the most experienced trader can make a mistake analyzing the market, so when you open a position always put your stop loss!

More tips you can find at http://newonforex.com/forex-tips/

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Economic Calendar

May 10, 2012

http://newonforex.com/

Today you can see very important events on the Economic Calendar. Here you can see some of them:

Trade Balance – Canada 13:30 GMT – A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Trade Balance – USA 13:30 GMT – A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Initial Jobless Claims – USA 13:30 GMT – A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks – USA 14:30 GMT – His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend for the USD.

If you don’t understand anything or you just have a question just write a comment and we will answer you as soon as possible!

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Good luck !

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USD/CHF tests the resistance at 0.9268

May 8, 2012

http://newonforex.com/

Yesterday people traded USD/CHF in the range 0.9190-0.9250, however they showed bullish sentiment. Today it more likely will test the strong resistance level at 0.9268 and if  it doesn’t go through will find support at 0.9145 with the 50 period EMA. However if it breaks the resistance it more likely will continue in uptrend until the next resistance at 0.9335. Look for reversing/breaking bars/candles at the 30min -1 hour charts they should be the signals.

Trading idea: Look at the hourly chart(be careful on lower period the signal will be weaker) and if the price breaks the resistance at 0.9268 open long position 10 pips above the maximum of the breaking bar. Put your stop loss 10 pips below the minimum of the breaking(signal) bar and take profit 10 pips below the next resistance 0.9325. When you make 20-30 pips profit close part of the position in order to compensate eventual trend change. Beware of a bull trap! Good luck!

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If you don’t understand anything or you just have a question just write a comment and we will answer you as soon as possible!

Good luck!